Poll shows Charest in majority territory

by RHÉAL SÉGUIN — May 1, 2008

QUEBEC -- A second public opinion poll in a week shows Premier Jean Charest's minority government in a comfortable lead with enough support to obtain a majority in the National Assembly if an election were held this week.

The survey, conducted by the polling firm CROP for the Montreal daily La Presse, gave the Liberals 38-per- cent support among decided voters, ahead of the Parti Québécois at 29 per cent and the Action démocratique du Québec at 17 per cent.

It confirmed the ADQ's sharp decline in popularity of more than 13 percentage points since the March, 2007, general election. The numbers were not much more encouraging for PQ Leader Pauline Marois, who has seen her party fall to almost the same level of support it received in the last election under her controversial predecessor, André Boisclair.

With support for sovereignty down to 36 per cent since Ms. Marois scrapped the party's commitment to hold a referendum if elected, the Bloc Québécois was also feeling the pinch. The poll showed Bloc support down to 28 per cent, neck and neck with the Conservatives at 27 per cent in Quebec. Support for Stéphane Dion's Liberals in the province was 20 per cent, slightly better than the NDP at 17 per cent.

Quebeckers appeared satisfied with minority governments both in Quebec and Ottawa, giving Mr. Charest an approval rating of 53 per cent and Prime Minister Stephen Harper 49 per cent.

Despite the strong show of support, the Charest government appears in no hurry to call an election. "Quebeckers are satisfied with this government. They have indicated to us they don't want an election any time soon," Environment Minister Line Beauchamps said.

Among the crucial francophone voters, predominant in the majority of ridings, the PQ still held a slight lead with 34 per cent - only two points more than the Liberals at 32 per cent, with the ADQ plunging to 19 per cent.

Margin of error for the survey of 1,000 voters, done between April 17 and April 27, is plus or minus three percentage points.

One reason why Mr. Charest may have said he'd prefer to wait as long as 2010 before calling an election is that close to 20 per cent of Quebeckers are uncertain about which party they would vote for. Another reason is the potential impact the U.S. economic slowdown may have on Quebec's political landscape.

Source:The Globe and Mail